Can we get a deal in Copenhagen?

The question that is on everyone's mind these days is "Whether a deal can be clinched at Copenhagen or not". If everyone has the interest of the planet in mind, then it is a no-brainer. But is that the reality. The answer is Yes and No. Yes because all the global leaders are expressing their concern about climate change in public. No because no one, even the worst polluters, wants to pay for it. What is the reason for this stalemate? There are a host of reasons.

Firstly, the worst polluters, in terms of emissions per capita, are reluctant to pay for the pollution they are responsible for. As always, even here, there is a shortage of leaders who want to lead by example. As we have seen in the case of gulf war, war in Afghanistan and other adventures which have gone awry, everyone wants someone else to fix the problem that they created. But they don't mind accepting the Nobel prize if it comes without any strings attached nor is preceded by any notable achievement.

Secondly, everyone is talking about reducing emissions based on 1995 levels, 2005 levels etc. This clearly shows that the politicians elsewhere in the world are no different than our homegrown ones who keep promising the same things in every election but never keep their word. But they are successful at making people beleive that they are really concerned in solving their problems! When it comes to reducing emissions, unless it is linked to the GDP per capita, nothing concrete can be achieved. It is like having affirmative action to help people who were once oppressed. This will hurt the regular junta, but they have to pay for the problems they created in some way.

The third and the most important point is that the Copenhagen conference is happening when most of the economic superpowers have been rendered worthless by the financial turmoil whose effects still persist. No government wants to commit to spend the money that they don't have. The US can print more dollars, but will have to pay to China later. India has still a long way to go in terms of development and hence can't commit to anything at all. The list goes on.

In summary, most of the reasons which can prevent this deal from happening have to do with economics and not about protecting environment. The sooner everyone accepts this fact, it will be better for everyone at the negotiating table in Copenhagen.