The attempt by BJP central leadership to replace Yeddyurappa, the Karnataka chief minister, has landed them in a spot. With Yeddyurappa refusing to resign, what are the options before the BJP central leadership? Not many. Before we get into those details some context setting is needed so that the options can be put in perspective.
First of all, Karnataka is the only place where BJP has a government in the south. Yeddyurappa and his close confidants have been with the party from the beginning and have been through its thick & thin. But, not too long ago, Yeddyurappa had lost his security deposit in an assembly election. It was only after he became the deputy chief minister for the first time, he can claim some following.
Secondly, Yeddyurappa's craze for the chief minister's chair has been well-known. On that count, his behavior now is not totally unexpected. But the support that he is claiming to have from the religious mutts is due to some magnanimity that he has shown for those institutions earlier. For someone in the position of power, buying the support of seers is not difficult.
Keeping the above two points in mind, the BJP central leadership has 3 options in front of them.
1. Allow Yeddyurappa to continue in the chair with some cosmetic change in the composition of the ministry. This option is not feasible because Congress & JD(S) will try to stall the assembly proceedings and the congress government at the center can also possibly invoke president's rule.
2. Throw only Yeddyurappa out of the party and warn his followers of similar action if they continue to support him. Most of them may fall in line while a few of them may show solidarity with Yeddyurappa. But most of the BJP MLAs are not ready to face the elections at this point with so much taint on their government. This may ensure that the government would survive & even if it falls, BJP should be able to face the elections confidently by boasting of being on moral high-ground.
3. Allow Yeddyurappa to nominate his crony to be the chief minister. The danger with this option is that people can see through it if the opposition plays their cards well. This would ensure that BJP will be defeated in the next assembly election whenever it happens.
In my view, option #2 is the best option under the present circumstances. That would ensure that BJP's image will not suffer much and they will be able to fight a snap election also, projecting someone else. After all there are very few people (less than 10) in BJP who can win election on their own. The rest will need party's support to win. This includes Yeddyurappa also, if he is thrown out of CM's chair at this point.
If Yeddyurappa is allowed to continue and manages to dissolve the assembly, it is a disaster for the BJP. He seems to think that he is bigger than the party and that needs to be fixed quickly before things go out of control. Going by the past behavior of the major political parties, I think BJP central leadership may choose either option #3 or option #1 but not option #2. Seeing the way the BJP leadership has handled the situation so far, we may have to wait for another week or so before we see any action on the ground.
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